| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Lamar | 51-0 | 1329.5 | +0.0 | 1329.5 | 27.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 33-30 | 1329.5 | +40.2 | 1369.7 | 60.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Washington State | 59-10 | 1369.7 | +44.6 | 1414.3 | 39.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Army | 45-38 | 1414.3 | +72.8 | 1487.1 | 18.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | South Alabama | 36-22 | 1487.1 | +20.7 | 1507.8 | 69.4% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | L | South Florida | 36-63 | 1507.8 | -46.4 | 1461.4 | 46.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UTSA | 55-17 | 1461.4 | +33.1 | 1494.5 | 53.4% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | W | Charlotte | 54-20 | 1494.5 | +12.6 | 1507.1 | 88.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Navy | 31-17 | 1507.1 | +54.4 | 1561.5 | 29.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UAB | 53-24 | 1561.5 | +12.8 | 1574.3 | 88.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Rice | 56-24 | 1574.3 | +21.4 | 1595.7 | 80.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Temple | 52-25 | 1595.7 | +9.4 | 1605.1 | 85.3% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Tulane | 21-34 | 1605.1 | -24.4 | 1580.7 | 35.6% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | San Diego State | 49-47 | 1580.7 | +29.5 | 1610.2 | 65.3% |